Ethanol is also sometimes produced from wheat, for example. However, in the case of corn, the efficiency of the process (the amount of energy obtained by burning ethanol relative to the energy put into producing it) is several times higher. Thus, monitoring of corn crops around the world, which allows estimating corn yields, also provides […]
Ethanol is also sometimes produced from wheat, for example. However, in the case of corn, the efficiency of the process (the amount of energy obtained by burning ethanol relative to the energy put into producing it) is several times higher. Thus, monitoring of corn crops around the world, which allows estimating corn yields, also provides insight into estimates of the profitability of ethanol production. The most developed crop monitoring systems currently operate in the US and the EU , as well as in China and Brazil.
In 2023, despite unfavorable weather conditions in the US, crop monitoring allows estimating corn yields higher than in 2022 and above the five-year average, which generally puts downward pressure on the price of corn, especially after harvest ( adding to the seasonality effect). This will affect the ethanol price in the somewhat longer term.
Ethanol prices in Europe are highly correlated with corn prices:
In the short term, ethanol prices are also affected by many other factors. Currently, the seasonal increase in demand due to increased fuel consumption during the summer supports ethanol price increases. In addition, the structure of ethanol futures holders also shapes changes in price levels over the next several days. The key factor here is the influence of the large trader segment, which maintains a positive net balance (an advantage of the number of long positions over the number of short positions) in this market.
Structure of holders of European ethanol futures contracts – net positive balance:
As a result, the short-term predictive model constructed at ExMetrix now indicates the possibility of price increases.
Forecast of 16.06.2023:
Forecast dated 23.06.2023:
The model is optimized using machine learning.
Corn yields and crop size for the world’s leading producers in 2023 .
In the U.S., apparent shortfalls in precipitation will be offset by an increase in acreage planted , and as a result, estimated production should increase:
For China, both weather and corn yields are expected to be near their multi-year norms ( or slightly above), with total production rising minimally:
In Brazil, the weather situation is also normal, production output above the 5-year average, but slightly lower compared to last year. With minimally higher acreage, yields at levels very similar to last year:
W UE wielkość opadów w 2023 roku dotąd w normie, znacznie lepsza niż w roku ubiegłym. Stąd szacowana znacznie większa wydajność produkcji i pomimo nieco mniejszego areału upraw daje wyraźnie większą wartość produkcji.
Estimated productivity of crop production, including corn in the EU in 2023:
Impact of weather conditions on spring and winter crops in the EU:
Since mid-May, the drought has stopped in most parts of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the recent rains came too late for spring and winter crops. Sunny and dry conditions in much of northwestern, northern and north-central Europe caused rapid depletion of soil moisture reserves, negatively affecting the yield potential of winter and spring crops. A marked excess of precipitation in southern and northern parts of Italy, Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia caused waterlogging, flooding of areas and increased pest pressure, which had a negative impact on winter crops. In the Danube Valley in northern Bulgaria and southern Romania, low temperatures caused delays in sowing and emergence of spring crops.
