An analysis of the factors affecting the availability of natural gas in Poland in 2023 allows us to conclude that those that support demand reduction, and therefore the security of supply, will be prevalent. The main factors influencing the formation of gas demand. Factors supporting assumptions about the reduction of demand for gas fuels in […]
An analysis of the factors affecting the availability of natural gas in Poland in 2023 allows us to conclude that those that support demand reduction, and therefore the security of supply, will be prevalent.
The main factors influencing the formation of gas demand.
Factors supporting assumptions about the reduction of demand for gas fuels in the 2023 group of existing customers:
- increasing the share of RES in the energy mix
- development of technologies and increase in the energy efficiency of installations powered by gas fuel
- thermo-modernization of buildings
- low level of economic prosperity
- average 24-hour temperature higher than the multi-year average
Factors supporting growth in demand:
- new connections planned
In the scenario of expected gas demand in the period 2023-2025, GAZ-SYSTEM assumes a continuation of the energy crisis initiated in 2022 (a decrease in gas consumption by an average of about 16.5% compared to the previous year), related to the general situation in the gas markets: supply constraints and an increase in gas fuel prices.
Minimum filling at about 58%, in the second half of April 2023. With the expected levels of gas inflow from outside (LNG + Baltic Pipe), raw material availability should be assured.
Gas demand trajectory scenarios considered.
In the demand forecasts prepared by GAZ-SYSTEM for the NAP 2024-2033, a breakdown of gas fuel customers into the following basic categories was used:
- Final customers by industrial and power customers, divided into power plants, CHP plants and heating plants.
- Distribution customers.
In the case of forecasts for power plants and CHP plants, they coincide with the high EUA price variant of the forecast of gas consumption in the power industry, included in the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040:
- Over the period 2026 – 2031 with a conservative forecast
- In the period 2039 – 2040 with a moderate forecast
Gas consumption to date in Poland in customer groups:
Expectations for industrial activity in Poland and Europe.
Business expectations, after several weeks of growth, have stopped in Europe at less than 50 points. In Germany and France, they recorded sharp declines. In general, they fit the scenario of low growth rates in 2023 in Europe, which supports the reduction in gas demand.
Current expectations for natural gas prices in Poland – the forward curve of natural gas prices in Poland until the end of 2025:
Market participants currently expect prices to fall by about 7% by mid-year, followed by a price increase of about 20% by the end of the year.
LNG supply to Poland and Europe.
LNG stocks expected to rise:
